j.b.l.o.g.s

11:31am. I opened my laptop and checked on my online portfolio. Gain/Loss column reads negative. Wait, yesterday, this was 5 digits postive. Blink, blink. Refresh web browser.

11:34am. Something is wrong. Are there server problems with my online broker? It doesn’t seem to be. The figures are still the same, actually, a little worse. But I don’t want to care even about it at that moment. It is true! I am not dreaming or something. By this time, I really hoped I was dreaming because in less than 24 hours, a big sum of money just turned negative; disappeared.; evaporated. Blink, Blink.

11:37am. What do I do now? I had to know what was happening to guide me manage my positions and emotions. I hastily checked http://business.inquirer.net. "Shares sharly lower…" purportedly due to a global slump in markets triggerred by a China-bubble-burst sell-off. $#@%!! Oh no, a market grand sell-off is happening right in front of me!

11:45am. Sell all! No, sell some,…or then again, most. Identify the weak ones that have significantly broken support levels and those which may trigger further selling in the next few days. Breathe deeply.

11:49am. Decide Jonel, decide. Hold on to strong ones which exhibited immediate and strong rebounds and didn’t drop too low. Inhale, exhale.

11:53am. Last few minutes before end of trading. Sell weak positions as much as possible. Broker servers experiencing slow down. Oh no, not now, I have to get rid of these stocks. Hold on.

11:59am, One minute remaining.

12:01am. That was it, it was the best I can do. I am left to hope that they are good decisions and that the market would somehow recover soon.

This is the knee jerk reaction of the Philippine market caught in the ripples of an external global sell-off. What a prelude to my Camiguin vacation! I hope it’s over and would recur only in the far distant future.

The long-term view in the Philippine Stock market is, nonetheless, still generally positive (except near the election season) with the better economic outlook, zooming OFW remittances and strong peso, among others.

If this event was able to teach me one thing, it’s about letting go. This is my first time to sell at a loss; a grand sell-off at that! I had very few unrealized loss in the past which I stood my ground on, resisting to sell. I guess some may call it pride(not wanting to sell at a loss), but I was right, in a sense that prices came back up eventually, albeit in months with one case.

This time though, holding on is to invite peril and resisting to sell would only lead to a likely further loss.

     If 2005 was characterized by my first small ship ride to Galera, 2006 with the big ferry ride to Coron Palawan, 2007 started with a surf board ride at La Union and plane ride to CDO. Ok, no big deal. But at age 28, it sounds pathetic. Ok, not realy (but u just acknowledged it, man!). =)

     Aside from the fact that it’s a 99 peso fare, it has not happened, yet. It will be on Friday(March 2) en route to Cagayan De Oro ETD 6:20am. The 5-day adventure itinerary includes trips to Camiguiun and White Islands, overnight stays at Paras Resort and Casa Crystalla, and day tours/activities at Canopy Walk, Katibawasan Falls, snorkeling at Mantigue, Spelunking at Kweba de Oro and white water rafting.

     An unusual entry would be the Day4 dinner at Ketkai Mall. Haha, I’m not really sure yet if this is a mall as we know it, but it surely is a let-up from the ‘nature’ theme. =)

     Check my other local exploration photos at http://jonleuy.mulitply.com

     My first commercial massage, actually. I decided to try it this afternoon having come from a badminton tournament in the morning. The tournament was cut short for us as we didn’t make it to the semis (this deserves a whole new article although I’m not inclined to write about it as I intend to erase it from my memory).

     I thought a massage would be a great way to relax and ease some aching muscles.

     This health establishment in Makati offered authentic hand, foot and body massages in varied length of hours. I opted for the last; for 1 hr. The obvious-owner Korean looking guy wasn’t actually that friendly on my standards for a service-oriented business. Fast forward, I was led to the ‘area’ where I was handed a set of pajama-like shirt and pants by my would-be lady-masseur. They were strangely non-vocal about things and seem to use gestures; perhaps assuming that I am also a Korean which comprise around 90% of their customers. I introduced myself and told her that it’s my first time and I only have a slight idea on how things would henceforth unfold. Realizing I’m a local, she returned a congenial smile.

     The massage started on my left foot, legs, then upper thigh. She asked if the pressure was ok. I concurred advising her to just go easy on my right knee which was somewhat sprained earlier from the tournament. The feeling was quite funny as she approached the inner and upper thigh area. And you know where this is leading. My only point is, if you’re a guy and having a massage by a lady, you better go there with a clear objective of having the massage for health reasons alone and concentrate on that thinking. Moving on, the best part of the leg massage was when the masseur, grabbing my foot, raised my left leg, places both her feet below the thigh and pulls my leg towards her and away from me. You can just feel the stretch.

     The arms came next, then the back as I lie face down. Again, pressure was applied in different areas of the butt, lower back and upper back. I asked her when is the proper time to breathe as she places immense pressure on my upper back which caused me to cough intensely every time she did it.

     I realized that she was not so good at answering questions. =)

     I also got ticklish when she placed pressure near the armpit area. I don’t know if she noticed, but I was restraining my urge to laugh, and jolts from time to time.

     And I thought it was almost over. I was wrong, a body massage includes a head massage! And so pressure was also applied to my scalp, forehead and temple. She went to my feet and lower legs for the final touches and bade goodbye. ‘Wow’ was how I felt. I felt reborn. Ok, that’s exaggeration, but it was great anyway since I am not actually used to having other people touch my body for a one whole hour. =)

     Seriously now, the experience also made me reminisce about my late grandma whom I used to massage during weekend nights when I was in still high school. It was like my service to her then (aside from the fact that she needed and wanted it). I know how hard and tiring it is to massage someone, and practicing it as a profession doesn’t make it any easier.

     So that is how a Thai massage is done. I intentionally didn’t do background research on it beforehand to be able to have an unbiased evaluation based purely on experience and personal opinion. It’s a great experience and I’m going to try it again, perhaps after the next ‘shuttling’ session.

     Whenever I receive email greetings or gift cards from friends and family which says "Merry Xmas", I usually advise them not to drop Christ’s name and that the ’shortcut’ excuse is simply unacceptable. The few strokes saved from a pen’s ink is simply not worth the loss.

     Yesterday, on a last-minute gift shopping for friends and family, I saw this giant ad in the Activity Center of Glorietta Mall which says "Xtian Xmas" from a particular wrist watch brand. The message seemed to have been intended to correlate with the famous local actor-singer whose face is situated beside the phrase. As much as the public would be delighted with the model’s cheerful smile, the literary greeting may not come across in the same way. If the brand/company really wants to greet the whole Christendom during their time of celebration, I hope that they be sensitive enough not to drop the name of the celebrant.

     Please don’t drop Christ from Christmas. Please don’t forget the reason of the season.

      No and Yes.

     No, because compared to prices back in August and September, stock prices this November are already quite overbought and at its peak. Coming in now would only give you minimal returns until December/January for short-term investing. Yes, because you may still enter the market if you really want to actually.

     If I wrote this article last week, it would have ended with the previous paragraph. However, today’s 3rd quarter local economy report gave a disappointing result of 4.8 percent growth quarter-on-quarter as against the forecasted 5.4.

     The market was actually down characterized by consolidation and profit-taking in the recent days on the backdrop of overbought scales. I was actually banking on the government 3Q report to push the market back up. I was wrong.

     So now, in relation to the question title, my recommendation is another No and Yes.

     No, because the most of the stocks might continue trending down with extended profit-taking and as consolidation touches the dips. Yes, if you think that the stocks you are eyeing have reached its support levels. Hence, you could actually look at this market downturn as a ‘buy’ opportunity where prices are attractive.

     So keep tight watch of the market in the next few days before you buy. Raise the caution cards, grab the supports and be keen on good news.

     The Philippine Stock Market today is significantly up having hit a new 9-year high. Thanks to Moody’s credit outlook upgrade from ‘negative’ to ’stable’.

     It’s actually quite delayed, considering the 2 other prominent debt rating agencies Standard & Poor and Fitch Ratings did the same earlier this year. But it comes no surprise since Moody is known to be the most pessimistic among the three. The first to downgrade and the last to upgrade.

     I’m sure a lot of smiles are on the faces of most stock investors today including this blog’s writer. Quoting from http://www.prudentinvestornewsletters.blogspot.com October 17 entry: "Based on Pinoyfinance.com data, as the Phisix is up by over 20% year-to-date, of 264 issues listed (265 ex-Tuna Alliance) 176 issues have advanced (as of October 16) or 66.67% compared to 15.5% decliners while the rest are unchanged. This translates to about 7 advancing issues for every 10 issues"

     And this is just the beginning. By next week, different companies will start releasing their third quarter reports. I’m sure the grass will be greener. With the peso’s rise in last quarter, the big leagues would have saved a lot from their foreign currency adjustments. On the other hand, although exporters are on the losing side, the general export uptake lately would have somewhat minimized their loss.

     But that’s not the end of it. OFW dollar inflows would also start coming in as their expectant relatives prepare for the holidays. Moreover, data on foreign investment inflows are significantly on the rise, supporting improved foreign sentiments on the Philippine economy. As TV-home shopping ads retort: "But wait, there’s more!". The year is expected to be capped with the government’s final figures on its reduced budget deficits, performing better than their year-end target.

     By then, the smiles are way up and over their ears.

Next Investment Blog: So, Should I Invest Now?

     It’s not the usual type of addiction like smoking, illegal drugs, or gambling. Ok, some would say it’s gambling. But I contest the idea since this is done with thorough study, research, calculation, intense analysis and intellectual decision making process.

     It all started 3 months ago in the month of July. I became aware of an Ayala Corporation Preferred Share Offering through a broker-friend. I was attracted by the investment’s guaranteed dividend returns at 9.3x% per annum for 5 years, not to mention the credibility of the underlying blue-chip company. The purchase was actualized early August. The predilection was parlayed by an online stock brokerage firm seminar referred by a friend who’s also into stock investments. This time, its the stock we are most familiar with, the volatile common stocks.

     With the high risk involved, I decided to have a self-imposed moratorium of just being an observer for the month of August. And so it was, after further educating myself and practicing stock analysis as if I already owned them, I knew what stocks to buy come September.

     I bought my first 5000 shares of Megaworld(Meg) common stocks online. The results were outstanding in a few days’ time. By October 2 (since October 1 was a Sunday), I started my buying spree. Simply put, there was a time that I owned more than 10 different stocks in my portfolio! Obviously, this was a big no-no in basic stock principles; and I am aware of that. Diversification can be raised as an excuse, but more than 10 stocks can be considered farfetched. Reason behind was the good climate in the current Philippine stock market (see next blog in a few days).

     To scratch the itch, my first ’sell’ was 20 shares of Ayala Corporation(AC) stocks; earned a few bucks with a click of a mouse.

     My first unrealized loss was from a financial institution. It was unrealized because I did not and still have not sold it. I believe it will fight back by December (*wink*). It went down as far as 24% and it was painful. It was like your money burning in front of you. Aside from my high school physics class, this is where I learned the real meaning of volatility. As much as you can buildup to 50%, your hard-earned money could also be slashed by 40% in any given day. That is why knowing the company you’re investing in is necessary. Pure speculation simply makes a risky endeavor riskier 10 times.

     After having myself immersed in this stressful but exciting pursuit, and before the activity turns into an unhealthy obsession, control was beckoned. I intend to go easy on the trading and treat this more as a long-term investment.

     It’s another Philippine Holiday today, October 24, 2006, in observance of a Muslim’s Eid’l Fitr and celebration of the end of Ramadan.+

     Most employees are in jubilation as the Department of Labor and Employment (DOLE) released salary guidelines for employers. Part of the guidelines state that an employee who was made to report on a holiday should be compensated with 200% of his/her salary. If in case the holiday falls on an employee’s rest day, it is increased to 260%.

     Notice that I used the phrase ‘most employees’. This is because that a sad fact remains that some businessmen still manage to ‘take advantage’ of their personnel. Some friends of mine working in different industries in Manila have expressed their dismay about their company not following the labor code. Their bosses require them to provide services even during the holidays. This is the nature of their work. But instead of giving the wage earner what is due them, managers encourage employees to render work on that day and just ‘offset’ back the work hours to another day or just credit it as earned leave. Simply said, it’s just one of the regular working days.

     Some employees are plain clueless about these labor laws, while others choose to turn a blind eye; in fear of earning the ire of their employer - their boss.

     If you are an employer and you are reading this right now. I hope to effect your sentiments and integrity in giving your personnel what is due them, according to applicable laws and what is upright.

     I just found out today that there is another Jonel Uy walking around the terrestrial landscape of the planet. No big deal actually.

     I’ve known long beforehand the multiple occurrences of the name Jonel. On the internet, there’s Jonel Engineering in the USA, a Jonel Barbershop near our area in Frisco and Jonel Money Changer shop, to name a few. But I never really thought there would be another "Jonel Uy". I may have subconsciously tried to deny it (believing that the name Jonel is not that common in this world, much less to have the surname ‘Uy’). But that assumption was all shuttered when I tried Microsoft’s Beta release of live.com, a search engine website that directly rivals that of Google search and Yahoo.

     I just have to accept the fact, i guess. By the way, I have nothing against him. I’m just rumbling the loss of my uniqueness. I just feel betrayed by the situation. I just have to comfort myself that my counterpart is not a gambling lord or a drug addict at large. I think he is a good person since the search engine located him to be associated with the sports of table tennis (http://www.greenpaddle.com/events/8thUPChancellor.asp). Not too far from my beloved badminton sport. He is also not more than 13 years old, as what the site indicated. His team is 2nd runner up in the 8th UP Chancellor’s Cup at UP Diliman (same as my alma mater).

     But then again, there’s still the possibility of a typographical error on his name’s spelling (making this whole article irrelevant; great!)

     Yesterday, the metro was struck by the strong typhoon ‘Milenyo’. Most of Metro Manila’s south are left without electricity until today. The apartment-condo I am residing in Makati was not spared. Having no electricity, our power-generated water supply is also down. It’s 2pm today and I had to go to the office. I had to ask for a pail of water from a nearby neighbor. No big deal actually, it’s just water. I just never thought that I would be asking for basic water from strangers. Back in our place, we always had reservoir in water tanks.

     Growing up in a little above-average earning family, we almost always had more than enough of the basic necessities in life; and some leisure. A comfy  house, good food, decent clothes and a good education were readily available. When emergency needs come up or in times of calamities, network of relatives are always reliable.

     But since I made the move to independence a few years ago, I had to do all things by myself. Paying for my own bills, shelter, food, and soliciting for my own pail of water are just some of the unwieldiness of steering my own life and having no relative-imposed house rules and curfews. I just felt humbled.